Premier League Prop Hit Rates
How often each team has hit a threshold across their last 20 matches, next to what the market is pricing.
These are not predictions. Every number is a team's raw historical frequency — no opponent adjustment, no lineups, no regression to the mean. An 80% hit rate is not an 80% probability.
And there is no edge in it. I backtested the rule over 1,560 matches: the rates themselves hold up (72.0% shown vs 71.1% actual), but betting the gap between our rate and the market's implied probability returned −2.9% ROI — worse than backing every match blindly at −1.9%. Cards, fouls, corners and shots are not quoted anywhere, so those were never tested against a price at all.
Read the rates as observations. The gap to the market is not a signal.
Del Simpson · internal note
Matchday 5 of 38
Sat 19 - Sun 20 Sep13+ fouls — Spurs
80% of their last 20 matches6 in a row
4+ corners — Aston Villa
80% of their last 20 matches
1+ card — Aston Villa
80% of their last 20 matches
4+ corners — Spurs
70% of their last 20 matches3 in a row
Over 2.5 goals
1+ card — Arsenal
90% of their last 20 matches7 in a row
11+ fouls — Brighton
85% of their last 20 matches5 in a row
3+ shots on target — Brighton
85% of their last 20 matches4 in a row
3+ shots on target — Arsenal
85% of their last 20 matches
Over 2.5 goals
1+ goal — Everton
80% of their last 20 matches
3+ shots on target — Ipswich
75% of their last 20 matches5 in a row
9+ fouls — Ipswich
75% of their last 20 matches
2+ cards — Everton
70% of their last 20 matches3 in a row
Over 2.5 goals
1+ goal — Newcastle
85% of their last 20 matches4 in a row
2+ cards — Newcastle
80% of their last 20 matches5 in a row
3+ shots on target — Newcastle
80% of their last 20 matches
9+ fouls — Newcastle
75% of their last 20 matches4 in a row
Over 2.5 goals
1+ card — Forest
85% of their last 20 matches9 in a row
9+ fouls — Forest
75% of their last 20 matches5 in a row
1+ goal — Forest
75% of their last 20 matches
3+ shots on target — Forest
70% of their last 20 matches
Over 2.5 goals
9+ fouls — Liverpool
90% of their last 20 matches12 in a row
3+ shots on target — Bournemouth
90% of their last 20 matches5 in a row
1+ goal — Bournemouth
85% of their last 20 matches12 in a row
9+ fouls — Bournemouth
75% of their last 20 matches4 in a row
Over 2.5 goals
1+ card — Leeds
85% of their last 20 matches
9+ fouls — Leeds
80% of their last 20 matches
1+ goal — Palace
75% of their last 20 matches3 in a row
3+ shots on target — Leeds
75% of their last 20 matches
Over 2.5 goals
1+ card — Man City
85% of their last 20 matches6 in a row
1+ goal — Sunderland
70% of their last 20 matches
3+ shots on target — Sunderland
65% of their last 20 matches4 in a row
2+ cards — Sunderland
65% of their last 20 matches
Over 2.5 goals
4+ corners — Fulham
90% of their last 20 matches8 in a row
1+ card — Fulham
85% of their last 20 matches
1+ goal — Man Utd
85% of their last 20 matches
3+ shots on target — Fulham
75% of their last 20 matches
Over 2.5 goals
History from football-data.co.uk (1,560 matches, 5 seasons). Fixtures and prices from The Odds API. Built 2026-09-19 13:10 UTC. 18+ · begambleaware.org